Neutrino mass hierarchy and precision physics with medium-baseline reactors: impact of energy-scale and flux-shape uncertainties

Nuclear reactors provide intense sources of electron antineutrinos, characterized by few-MeV energy E and unoscillated spectral shape Phi(E). High-statistics observations of reactor neutrino oscillations over medium-baseline distances L ~ O(50) km would provide unprecedented opportunities to probe both the long-wavelength mass-mixing parameters (delta m^2 and theta_12) and the short-wavelength ones (Delta m^2 and theta_13), together with the subtle interference effects associated to the neutrino mass hierarchy (either normal or inverted). In a given experimental setting - here taken as in the JUNO project for definiteness - the achievable hierarchy sensitivity and parameter accuracy depend not only on the accumulated statistics but also on systematic uncertainties, which include (but are not limited to) the mass-mixing priors and the normalizations of signals and backgrounds. We examine, in addition, the effect of introducing smooth deformations of the detector energy scale, E -> E'(E), and of the reactor flux shape, Phi(E) -> Phi'(E), within reasonable error bands inspired by state-of-the-art estimates. It turns out that energy-scale and flux-shape systematics can noticeably affect the performance of a JUNO-like experiment, both on the hierarchy discrimination and on precision oscillation physics. It is shown that a significant reduction of the assumed energy-scale and flux-shape uncertainties (by, say, a factor of two) would be highly beneficial to the physics program of medium-baseline reactor projects. Our results shed also some light on the role of the inverse-beta decay threshold, of geoneutrino backgrounds, and of matter effects in the analysis of future reactor oscillation data