What next for the CMSSM and the NUHM: improved prospects for superpartner and dark matter detection

We present an updated analysis of the CMSSM and the NUHM using the latest experimental data and numerical tools. We map out favored regions of Bayesian posterior probability in light of data from the LHC, flavor observables, the relic density and dark matter searches. We present some updated features with respect to our previous analyses: we include the effects of corrections to the light Higgs mass beyond the 2-loop order using FeynHiggs 2.10.0; we include in the likelihood the latest limits from direct searches for squarks and gluinos at ATLAS with ~ 20 fb −1 ; the latest constraints on the spin-independent scattering cross section of the neutralino from LUX are applied taking into account uncertainties in the nuclear form factors. We find that in the CMSSM the posterior distribution now tends to favor smaller values of M SUSY than in the previous analyses. As a consequence, the statistical weight of the A-resonance region increases to about 30% of the total probability, with interesting new prospects for the 14 TeV run at the LHC. The most favored region, on the other hand, still features multi-TeV squarks and gluinos, and ~ 1 TeV higgsino dark matter whose detection prospects by current and one-tonne detectors look very promising. The same region is predominant in the NUHM, although the A-resonance region is also present there as well as a new solution, of neutralino-stau coannihilation through the channel τ ˜ τ ˜ → hh $$ \tilde{\tau}\tilde{\tau}\ \to\ hh $$ at very large μ . We derive the expected sensitivity of the future CTA experiment to ~ 1 TeV higgsino dark matter for both models and show that the prospects for probing both models are realistically good. We comment on the complementarity of this search to planned direct detection one-tonne experiments