Risk management and assessment

Human beings are increasingly subjected to risks and phenomena of natural or technological origin that can compromise the balance between the social and natural environments. The Knowledge Society of the 20th century is characterized by the intensification of risks associated with climate change. Potentially devastating risks are our society’s biggest problem. By definition, risk is the value obtained from the assessment of possible consequences (human losses, direct and indirect damages and costs) caused by incidents or accidents, together with the probability of occurrence of hazardous processes due to the conjunction of the factors involved. Risk is a combination of the probability of unfavorable scenarios and their consequences. In this context, it is possible, and advisable, to evaluate the expected value of these consequences, in order to establish, based on scenarios, procedures for forecasting, preventing, controlling and mitigating the effects of these hazardous processes to people and assets, associated with both natural and technological risks. Risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk management are the main pieces in the process known as ‘Risk Assessment’. Risk assessment can be understood as the joint effort of identifying and analysing potential future events, i.e., risk analysis, and evaluating the acceptability of risk based on the risk analysis, while considering influencing factors, i.e., risk evaluation. In short, risk assessment analyses what can go wrong, how likely it is to happen and, if it happens, what are the potential consequences. Since this is a multi-disciplinary domain involving various scientific areas, among which geography, Earth and environmental sciences, ecology, engineering, law, economics, sociology and political sciences, this book gathers contributions covering a wide spectrum of topics with regard to their theoretical background and field of application. As part of this process, the resulting assessment of risk may be expressed in both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Vulnerability to risks varies widely, primarily depending on the capacity of societies to integrate them in the management of their activities, to mitigate their effects and to recover from the disaster. Two major parameters are decisive for ensuring the development of these capacities and the consequent reduction in vulnerability - expert knowledge and planning. It is within the first parameter that one seeks to discern the magnitude of risks and to test new technologies to support the monitoring, evaluation and communication of threats. The concept of risk has, of course, evolved over time, and is now a basic principle in decision-making by politicians, managers, entrepreneurs, builders and civil protection services, in the definition of safety and security systems, completed in safety and emergency plans, and is integrated in crisis management programs associated with accident situations. Risk assessment is an inherent part of an overall risk management strategy, which attempts to introduce, after a risk assessment, control measures to eliminate or reduce any potential risk-related consequences. This concept is linked today to a new paradigm, in which the technological, social and communicational aspects gain even more relevance.