Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz IV - Szenarien bis 2030

As a background study for the preparation of the German 2007 Projection Report and other projects of climate policy, scenarios are created in the “Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection IV” project with regard to the development of greenhouse gas emissions from German source sectors for the time period of 2000 to 2030. They are: $\bullet$ a $\textit{with measures scenario}$ (WMS), in which climate protection and energy policy measures adopted within the time period of 2000 to mid-2006 are taken into consideration and which is awarded a high level of prognostic relevance; $\bullet$ a $\textit{without measures scenario}$ (WOMS), in which a hypothetical development is described, had these measures not been adopted; $\bullet$ a $\textit{with additional measures scenario}$ (WAMS), in which the impact of further instruments - defined in coordination with the sponsoring agency - of climate protection and energy policy (or of relevant targets) are also taken into account in the scenario development. Within the scope of the scenario analyses, a detailed assessment is undertaken of the measures of climate protection and energy policy which have been adopted to date and which go beyond, in view of their impact on the development of German greenhouse gas emissions. The emissions of the greenhouses gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol – carbon dioxide (CO$_{2}$), methane (CH$_{4}$), nitrous oxide (N$_{2}$O), halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (HCFC), perfluorinated hydrocarbons (PFH) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF$_{6}$) – are considered for the following source sectors: energy, industrial processes, product use and waste management. Agriculture (in view of the CH$_{4}$ and N$_{2}$O emissions), land use change and forestry were not incorporated as source sectors in the analyses in accordance with the commission of the sponsoring agency. For the scenario development, an energy system model is deployed, with the help of which the results of detailed – and in part, model-based – sectoral analyses are consolidated to a consistent and comprehensive data set for the energy-economic development. Specific analyses are undertaken for the sectors of space heating and warm water, electrical devices, transport and electricity production from renewable energies as well as from fossil fuels. For the remaining source sectors, the results of other analyses were adopted or incorporated. The results of the energy-economic modelling constitute - together with supplementary and partially model-based analyses for industrial processes, product use as well as waste management - the basis for the detailed calculation of greenhouse gas emissions. The latter are determined in a way suitable to the structure and emissions levels of the current German greenhouse gas inventory. The scenario development and assessment of measures are undertaken in such a way that broadly satisfies the requirements of the Projection Report in view of the emission results, as well as background parameters and indicators; a high degree of transparency and comparability is also ensured in the process. [...