Development and validation of a prediction model for knee joint line orientation after high tibial osteotomy

Background Maintenance of optimal knee joint line orientation (KJLO) is important after high tibial osteotomy (HTO). No tools, however, are currently available that could predict the value of postoperative KJLO before surgery. First, this study sought to determine the effects of various preoperative anatomical alignment parameters to postoperative KJLO. Based upon these analyses, we aimed to devise an equation that predicts the value of postoperative KJLO. Methods A total of 14 radiographic parameters were measured in preoperative and postoperative full-limb standing anteroposterior radiographs on 50 patients who underwent open-wedge HTO. The parameters were analysed using multivariable linear regression to predict KJLO after HTO. External validation of the equation was done with 20 patients who underwent HTO at another institution. Results After HTO, KJLO increased from − 0.8° to 2.9° (P < 0.001). Based on the multivariable linear regression analysis, an equation was derived that can estimate postoperative KJLO after HTO; postoperative KJLO(°) = 1.029 + 0.560 × preoperative KJLO(°) + 0.310 × preoperative tibia plateau inclination(°) + 0.463 × aimed correction angle(°). The adjusted coefficients of determination value for this equation was 0.721. The equation also showed good calibration and predictability in external validation with predicted squared correlation coefficient of 0.867. Conclusions This study analysed the effects of preoperative anatomical alignment parameters on the postoperative KJLO. An equation which predicts postoperative KJLO with preoperative anatomical alignment factors was devised and validated. This equation would help in selecting optimal patients for HTO and in selecting the optimal target correction angle in HTO