A GAS INFRASTRUCTURE PATHWAY IN EAST JAVA USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Sebagai negara berkembang, Indonesia telah mengkonsumsi energi sebesar 114 Juta Ton Oil Equivalent (MTOE) dan diperkirakan kebutuhan energi akan meningkat hingga 167,4 MTOE pada tahun 2050 oleh Kementerian Energi Indonesia. Gas bumi juga diperkirakan akan berperan dalam memenuhi kebutuhan energi di Indonesia. Namun dalam memanfaatkan sebaran gas bumi yang tersebar di berbagai daerah, Indonesia masih kekurangan infrastruktur gas bumi. Karena infrastruktur gas bumi memainkan peran yang sangat penting dalam permasalahan tersebut, maka kondisi permintaan pasokan, kapasitas infrastruktur dan efektivitas jalur perlu disesuaikan dan dipertimbangkan. Dalam studi ini, metode dinamika sistem digunakan untuk meramalkan pasokan dan permintaan gas bumi di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Selain itu, simulasi dilakukan untuk mengoptimalkan dan mensimulasikan model skenario infrastruktur gas bumi pada periode waktu-tahun tertentu. Dengan kendala dan kondisi yang diberikan pada dinamika sistem, Kondisi supply-demand di wilayah Jawa Timur yang sebagian besar berasal dari pembangkit tenaga listrik, industri dan rumah tangga dikaji. Berdasarkan skenario yang dikembangkan, model tersebut diharapkan dapat memenuhi kebutuhan gas bumi di Jawa Timur. Kemungkinan pendirian terminal ======================================================================================================================== As a developing country, Indonesia has been consuming energy with 114 Million Ton Oil Equivalent (MTOE) and estimated that the demand for energy will increase up to 167,4 MTOE in 2050. It is also estimated that natural gas will play the role in fulfilling the energy demand in Indonesia. However, in utilizing the natural gas spread of the regions, Indonesia still lack of natural gas infrastructures. As natural gas infrastructures are playing a vital role on those problems, the condition of supply demand, capacity of infrastructure and the effectiveness of the route need to be adjusted and considered. In this study, system dynamics method is employed in order to forecast the supply and demand of natural gas in East Java Province. In addition, a simulation will be done to optimize and simulate the scenario model of the natural gas infrastructure at certain time-year period. With the constraint and condition given to the system dynamics, a supply-demand condition in East Java area that mainly comes from electrical power generation, industry and household is assessed. Based on developed scenarios, the model is expected to fulfil the needs of natural gas in East Java. The possibility of establishing new LNG terminal in certain location or expanding the capacity of existing facilities are also considered in this study