Affordability analysis of residential real estate in selected countries of the European Union

Stambeno zbrinjavanje jedna je od osnovnih životnih potreba, no za mnoge kupnja vlastitog stana predstavlja velike financijske izdatke. Nizak dohodak i visoke cijene stambenih nekretnina predstavljaju problem za građane Europske unije. Shodno tome, priuštivost stanovanja postala je bitna socijalna i ekonomska tema. Fluktuacije na stambenim tržištima mogu dovesti do nestabilnosti na financijskim tržištima te pogodovati razvoju nove financijske krize. Dok s jedne strane cijene stambenih nekretnina utječu na čitavo gospodarstvo, s druge strane ekonomske aktivnosti u zemlji utječu na cijene nekretnina zbog čega postoji dvosmjerna veza između tržišta nekretnina i funkcioniranja makroekonomskog sustava. No kako bi se postigla stabilnost na stambenom tržištu potrebno je veću pažnju posvetiti kretanju kamatne stope na stambene kredite. Trenutno stambena tržišta diljem Europske unije karakteriziraju rekordno niske kamatne stope na stambene kredite te iznimno velika potražnja za istima, popraćena rastom cijena stambenih nekretnina. Analizom priuštivosti stambenih nekretnina na temelju shelter first pristupa dolazi se do zaključka kako rast cijena stambenih nekretnina u razdoblju od 2014. do 2018. godine nije drastično utjecao na smanjenje priuštivosti stambenih nekretnina. Rast nominalnog BDPpc i bruto plaće u promatranom periodu te smanjenje kamatnih stope povećale su priuštivost u svim zemljama, osim u Češkoj i Mađarskoj gdje su cijene nekretnina rasle brže od dohotka.Housing is one of the basic human needs, but for many, buying their own apartment represents a big financial expense. Low income and high residential property prices are a problem for citizens of European Union. Consequently, housing affordability has become an important social and economic issue. Fluctuations in housing markets can lead to instability in financial markets and provoke the development of a new financial crisis. While on the one hand residential real estate prices affect the entire economy, on the other hand economic activities in the country affect real estate prices which is why there is a two-way link between the real estate market and the functioning of the macroeconomic system. However, in order to achieve stability in the housing market, it is necessary to pay more attention to the movement of interest rates on housing loans. Currently, housing markets across the European Union are characterized by record low interest rates on housing loans and extremely high demand for them, accompanied by rising housing prices. Housing affordability analysis based on the shelter first approach leads to the conclusion that the growth of residential real estate prices in the period from 2014. to 2018. did not have drastic affect on the decrease in the housing affordability. The growth of nominal GDP pc and gross wages in the observed period and the reduction of interest rates increased affordability in all countries, except in the Czech Republic and Hungary, where real estate prices grew faster than income