Importance of the environment for gestational duration variability and correlation between relatives - results from the Medical Swedish Birth Registry, 1973-2012

It has been suggested that the intergenerational associations in gestational age at delivery are considerably affected by temporal changes in the environmental conditions. We explored whether changing environment affects familial resemblance of gestational age at delivery. Understanding how correlation changes in different settings allows to design better studies aimed to detect genes and environmental factors involved in the parturition process. The Swedish Medical Birth Register was used to retrieve births during 1973-2012. In total, 454,433 parent-child, 2,247,062 full sibling, 405,116 maternal half-sibling and 469,995 paternal half-sibling pairs were identified. A decreasing trend in correlation, associated with increasing age gaps, was observed among all siblings, with the largest drop for full siblings, from p = 0.32 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.31, 0.33) for full siblings with one-year gap to p = 0.16 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.22) for full siblings with age gap above 20 years. A variation in association between full siblings born up to two years apart was observed; estimate p = 0.28 (95% CI: 0.26, 0.3) in 1973, and p = 0.36 (95% CI: 0.33, 0.38) in 2012. Observed variability in the association in gestational age at delivery between the relatives with respect to their birth year or age gap suggests the existence of temporally changing environmental factors