EUROPEAN SEMESTER AND EXCESSIVE DEFICIT PROCEDURE WITH A VIEW TO CROATIA AND OTHER COUNTRIES

Dužnička kriza iz 2008. godine uzdrmala je temelje te dovela u pitanje povjerenje u zajedničku valutu pa samim time i u zajednicu europskih zemalja. Pokazala je da Europska unija kao zajednica nije spremna za iznenadne i jake šokove u svijetu te da postoje velike gospodarske i socijalne razlike između zemalja članica. Institucije Europske unije na krizu su pokušale odgovoriti poduzimanjem novih te postroženjem starih mjera, zakona, akata i drugih oblika regulacije i nadzora. Ključnu ulogu u tom procesu imala je uspostava europskog semestra koji je postao glavni mehanizam kontrole makroekonomskih politika zemalja članica. Kao posljedica krize, većina država članica ušla je u proceduru prekomjernog deficita gdje su bile obvezne poduzeti potrebne korake za ispravljanje prekomjernog deficita i/ili duga prema preporukama institucija Europske unije te prema specifičnim obilježjima svoga gospodarstva. U radu se analiziraju iskustva odabranih zemalja članica koje su prošle kroz postupak korekcije prekomjernih makroekonomskih neravnoteža, sagledavaju se razlozi zbog kojih su ušle u navedenu proceduru i mjere koje su poduzele kako bi ispravile neravnoteže. Postavlja se pitanje može li se za navedene zemlje reći da su uspješno izašle iz procedure te postoji li vjerojatnost zbog novih potencijalnih šokova u svijetu da će se ponovo naći u istoj. Dodatno, preispitana je važnost i utjecaj europskog semestra te procedure prekomjernog deficita, posebno njihovih preporuka pojedinim zemljama od strane institucija Europske unije. Također, iako su neke zemlje kršile pravila, za to nisu bile sankcionirane što ostavlja prostor za razmišljanje jesu li donesene odluke i preporuke ipak prefleksibilne i preblage. Zaključak rada je da su novi procesi, mjere, zakoni koji su doneseni kao odgovor na krizu imali pozitivan utjecaj na oporavak zemalja članica te su dodatno osnažile zaštitni sloj Europske unije kao zajednice zemalja od vanjskih šokova. Međutim, ostalo je još mnogo prostora za poboljšanje da bi se sljedeći put pravovremeno reagiralo, a ne ex post kao u ovom slučaju.The 2008 debt crisis has shaken the foundations and questioned confidence in the common currency and, over time, in the common European countries. It showed that the European Union as a community is not prepared for the big shocks in the world and that there are big economic and social differences between the member states. The institutions of the European Union have tried to respond to the crisis by taking new and tightening old measures, laws, acts and other forms of regulation and supervision. A key force in this process was the establishment of the European Semester, which became the main mechanism for controlling the macroeconomic policies of the member states. As a result of the crisis, most Member States entered the excessive deficit procedure where they were obliged to take the necessary steps to correct the excessive deficit and/or debt according to the recommendations of the EU institutions and the specific characteristics of their economy. The paper analyzes the experiences of selected Member States that have gone through the process of correcting excessive macroeconomic imbalances, looks at the reasons why they entered the procedure and the measures they have taken to correct imbalances. The question is whether these countries can be said to have successfully exited the procedure and whether there is a likelihood of new potential shocks in the world that they will find themselves in it again. In addition, the importance and impact of the European Semester and the excessive deficit procedure, especially their recommendations to individual countries by the European Union institutions, were reviewed. Also, although some countries have violated the rules, they have not been sanctioned for it, which leaves room for reflection on whether the decisions and recommendations made are still too flexible and too lenient. The conclusion of the paper is that the new processes, measures, laws adopted in response to the crisis have had a positive impact on the recovery of member states and have further strengthened the protective layer of the European Union as a community of countries from external shocks. However, there is still much room for improvement to respond in a timely manner next time, not ex post as in this case