Overview of the dynamics and structure of migration from north Africa to the European Union

Cilj ovog diplomskog rada je dati pregled dinamike afričko-europskih migrantskih ruta u zadnjem desetljeću te na osnovi dostupnih statističkih podataka analizirati postojeće i buduće trendove na promatranim migrantskim rutama. Pritom su korištene metode deskripcije, kompilacije, komparacije, analize i sinteze, indukcije i dedukcije te kvantitativne metode u sklopu obrade statističkih podataka. Neki od iskorištenih sekundarnih izvora podataka su baze podataka Eurostata, International Organization for Migration (IOM) i The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Unatoč uvjerenju kako su afričke migracije stihijske u naravi i izvanredne u odnosu na one u ostatku svijeta, moderan teorijski okvir nudi kvalitetniju sliku motivacija afričkog stanovništva na migraciju te identifikaciju relevantih push i pull faktora. Većina afričkih migracija, posebno onih usmjerenih prema Europi, motivirana je željom za obrazovanjem, obiteljskim i poslovnim motivima, a ne oružanim sukobima ili nestašicama hrane ili pitke vode. Naime, push faktori, bilo oni socio-političke, ekonomske ili ekološke naravi ne mogu biti glavni argument u objašnjenju afričko-europskih migracija. Konstantan pritisak na povećanje direktnih stranih investicija u zemlje afričkog kontinenta je, u najmanju ruku, nedostatni alat za usporavanje migracija te je, s obzirom na puno veći pozitivni učinak radničkih doznaka emigrantskog afričkog stanovništva, krivo identificirani indikator i alat u makroekonomskim težnjama za razvojem zemalja afričkog kontinenta. Europska javnost se ne osjeća ugodno sa sve većim brojem stranih imigranata, što stvara pritisak na kreatore politika te institucije EU da razmišljaju dugoročno i kreiraju robusni sustav koji će se moći nositi sa sadašnjim i budućim pritiscima na vanjske granice EU.The aim of this thesis is to give an overview of the dynamics of African-European migrant routes in the last decade, and on the basis of available statistics to analyze existing and future trends in the observed migrant routes. Scientific methods used in the thesis include: description, compilation, comparison, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, and quantitative methods used in the processing of statistical data. Some of the secondary sources used are Eurostat databases, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Despite the belief that African migrations are spontaneous in nature and extraordinary compared to those in the rest of the world, the modern theoretical framework offers a better picture of the motivations of the African population to migrate and the identification of relevant push and pull factors. Most African migrations, especially those directed towards Europe, are motivated by a desire for education, family and business motives, rather than armed conflicts or shortages of food or drinking water. Namely, push factors, be they socio-political, economic or environmental in nature cannot be the main argument in explaining African-European migration. The constant pressure to increase foreign direct investment in the countries of the African continent is, to say the least, an insufficient tool for slowing down migration, and given the much greater positive effect of remittances of the African immigrant population, it is a misidentified indicator and tool in macroeconomic developmental aspirations for African countries. The European public does not feel comfortable with the growing number of foreign immigrants, which puts pressure on policymakers and EU institutions to think long-term and create a robust system that can cope with current and future pressures on the EU's external borders