The development of natural gas demand in the Russian electricity and heat sectors

Natural gas supplies to Russia’s domestic market are about twice the size of supplies to its export markets. Most of the gas supplied to the domestic market is used for electricity and heat production, which account for about 50 per cent of domestic natural gas consumption – more than 200bcm annually. Natural gas demand in this sector is highly influenced by the economic situation in the country, fuel pricing policy, and energy policy and regulation. While the economic situation shapes electricity demand (as most of this demand comes from industrial consumers), natural gas demand for electricity production is subject to inter-fuel competition between coal and natural gas, and inter-technology competition between nuclear and gas power plants. The latter is affected by capacity support mechanisms. The objective of the paper is to define the most important factors shaping natural gas demand in Russia’s electricity and heat sectors, to analyse the extent of their impact, and to reach conclusions on long-term natural gas demand for electricity and heat production up to 2035, taking different power demand and supply scenarios into consideration