Meteorological Determinants Of Mosquito Populations In Connecticut

As climate change continues at an alarming rate, it is important to quantify and characterize its wide-ranging impacts at both the global and more localized scales. This study aims to build on this body of evidence that details the local impacts of climate change that have already begun to and will increasingly harm human health. The study explores time trends in Connecticut’s mosquito abundance, as well as potential meteorological determinants of abundance for one key species. Secondary analysis using computational techniques was performed on mosquito abundance data provided by the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station (CAES). Simple linear regression was performed on 27 mosquito species connected to viruses that cause human disease in the state of Connecticut. It was determined that the population sizes of 12 mosquito species are increasing in the state while 2 appear to be decreasing. The Culex pipiens mosquito was selected a priori for further analysis because of its strong connection to West Nile Virus in the state. A multiple linear regression model with an autoregressive time series function to control for temporal correlation between collected mosquito counts from year to year was fit and evaluated. This study concludes that the abundance of the Cx. pipiens is positively associated with both temperature and precipitation variables. As climate change continues to warm our planet and have impacts such as higher yearly temperatures and heavier rainfall, we can expect the abundance of certain mosquitos species to increase in Connecticut