Effect of drought on communal livestock farmers in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa:

Despite the size of the informal small-scale farming sector and its livestock holdings in South Africa, there has been little detailed work to assess how livestock populations are affected by drought. South Africa experienced a major drought in 2015–2016. We analysed goat and cattle census data from the Msinga area in KwaZulu-Natal, which represent the livestock of some 3 000 households. Cattle farmers in the study area lost 43% of the herd, compared with 29% for goats, in 2015–2016. Three years after the drought, cattle numbers remained depressed, whereas goat numbers had recovered. Larger herds suffered lower mortality rates, suggesting that owners of larger herds had better means to support their herds. Support to reduce drought losses and aid recovery should take into consideration the different capabilities and requirements of small and large herd owners. Effects of high stocking rates and resource condition on mortality and herd growth were apparent during the drought year of 2016, but not the other years. Most die-offs appear to have been concentrated in a short period once forage and water resources became too scarce and far to reach. Recognising when this threshold is imminent would be useful for targeting strategic interventions