The effects of the stock and bond market on economic growth in South Africa (2003-2017)

Using quarterly data from 2003:Q3 to 2017:Q1, this study investigates the effect of the stock and bond markets on economic growth in South Africa. The variables used in the study pertain to South Africa and include the JSE All-Share Index, real effective exchange rate, bond market growth, investment expenditure, inflation rate, government expenditure and gross domestic product. The empirical study is guided by an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach which includes unit root tests for stationarity, bounds tests for cointegration and causality tests using the long run and short run error correction models. Diagnostic tests and stability tests are performed on the various econometric models. Tests include the Jarque-Bera test, Ramsey Reset Test, Whites test, CUSUM and CUSUM square test. The findings suggest that the stock market growth and bond market growth have displayed significantly different results with regards to their effects on economic growth. Stock market growth has had a positive impact on economic growth in the long run, whilst growth and development in the bond market does not have a statistically significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. The study provides a solid foundation for establishing the effects of the stock and bond market on economic growth