Contingency Fuel Reduction in Brazil

This project reviews the minimum fuel regulations for commercial passenger flights in different countries and intends to scientifically support a change in the existing contingency fuel requirement regulation in Brazil. This change represents fuel savings for Brazilian air operations, and it deploys into a competitive advantage for Brazilian airlines compared to foreign air operators. Discussion: The objective of this project is to provide the Brazilian civil aviation regulators with the necessary data to justify the reduction of the contingency fuel values from the current 10% to 5%. This project bases the analysis on the historical data of fuel planning and fuel consumption from two major Brazilian airlines, operating under the Civil Aviation Regulation RBAC 121. The historical evidence is analyzed by establishing relationships between flight planning and execution, indicating the fuel that was planned and consumed at each stage of the flight. The analysis of the impact in the contingency fuel change from 10% to 5% was made by simulating multiple scenarios capable of creating different fuel quantities for flight planning and random consumption values. The mathematical model is simulated using the Monte Carlo methodology, which calculates the amount of remaining fuel from each simulated flight to analyze the operational risk, then support decision making. Therefore, this project presents a theoretical and practical proposal that was implemented on April 1st, 2020, to reduce the minimum contingency fuel values required by Brazilian regulation, with a focus on safe and efficient flight operations