Strength and stability of railway tracks-I. probabilistic finite element analysis

Accidents due to derailment cause many fatalities and damage worth several millions of dollars each year. It is, therefore, imperative to revise present design rules regarding load estimation and track stability in order to improve the safety and economy of railway operations. The present investigation examines the vertical loads acting on the track from a probabilistic point of view to show how the vertical deflections of the track can be calculated and interpreted statistically in the context of the simple beam on elastic foundation model. It concludes by illustrating how the finite element method can be programmed in a stochastic format for the specific problem of rail strength analysis