Quantifying the Flexibility of Residential Electricity Demand in 2050: a Bottom-Up Approach

This work presents a new method to quantify the flexibility of automatic demand response applied to residential electricity demand using price elasticities. A stochastic bottom-up model of flexible electricity demand in 2050 is presented. Three types of flexible devices are implemented: electrical heating, electric vehicles and wet appliances. Each house schedules its flexible demand w.r.t. a varying price signal, in order to minimize electricity cost. Own- and cross-price elasticities are obtained through a regression analysis. Via a Monte Carlo approach-based method, the elasticities are scaled up to a country level. The results show that the electric energy demand will double and peak power demand can increase by a factor 5 to 8 compared to today. The elasticity matrices show that most flexibility is available in winter and least in summer.status: publishe