Landslide Hazard Assessment on the Ugandan Footslopes of Mount Elgon: The Worst is Yet to Come

On the 1st of March 2010 a heavy rainfall event triggered a devastating landslide in the Bududa region on the footslopes of Mount Elgon in eastern Uganda, destroying life and property. Earlier studies published in 2006 and 2007 looked at characteristics and causal factors of older landslides in the area based on a landslide inventory and a detailed digital terrain analysis. In addition, a landslide hazard assessment was conducted with the LAPSUS-LS landslide model identifying susceptible landslide triggering sites and scenarios of landslide erosion and deposition quantities and pathways. This paper revisits the earlier studies and assesses how accurately the recent landslide was predicted. In addition a revised landslide scenario for the near future is elaborated based on the critical rainfall threshold that triggered the recent landslide.status: publishe