A reliability assessment approach for electric power systems considering wind power uncertainty

The intermittence and uncertainty of wind power pose challenges to large-scale wind power grid integration. The study of wind power uncertainty is becoming increasingly important for power system planning and operation. This paper proposes a wind power probabilistic interval prediction model, and a novel reliability assessment approach is presented for electrical power systems. First, the unknown parameters estimation of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) prediction model is based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based Bayesian estimation method to improve the quality of statistical inference. Then, a quantum genetic algorithm is used to segment the power to determine the best output for each power segment weight and calculate the probabilistic prediction interval of wind power. Finally, reliability assessment by the sequential Monte Carlo simulation is presented combining with the probabilistic prediction interval of wind power on IEEE-RTS79 reliability test system. The simulation results that proposed variation range of reliability assessment indices consider the uncertain scenario of wind power and has guiding significance for power generation scheduling. Compared with genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm, it is proved that the proposed prediction interval model has better prediction interval coverage probability index and interval average bandwidth index.