A regional adjustment model to estimate the economic implications of declining groundwater in the High Plains

Vita.The Northern High Plains of Texas and Western Oklahoma has experienced rapid economic development due primarily to the development of groundwater for irrigation. Prior to irrigation development, this area of Texas and Oklahoma was devoted primarily to grazing and dryland production of some agricultural crops. Irrigational development encouraged rapid growth in agricultural production. As a result, the agricultural industry became the economic base for the entire region. Service industries to provide inputs and goods and services to the agricultural production sector have also increased in the region. Currently, the agricultural sector is continuing to lead the High Plains regional growth and irrigated production is a major component of the region's agricultural production. The primary source of irrigation water in the High Plains of Texas and Oklahoma is the Ogallala underground acquifer. Geohydrological data indicate that groundwater is being withdrawn more rapidly than it is being replaced. If current use rates continue the groundwater will be economically depleted for irrigation within the next 25 to 40 years