The deterioration and reliability of pavements

Vita.This study utilizes the results of full-scale field and prototype laboratory testing to develop methodology for the prediction of deterioration and assessment of the reliability of pavements. Deterministic equations are developed to predict deterioration in terms of rutting. The extensive data utilized were accumulated over four decades of research and represent a wide variety of pavement types and wheel loads. Ongoing field data collection programs are supplying additional data that will provide for deterioration analysis in terms of other modes, using analysis methods shown to be satisfactory in this investigation. Reliability assessment models are developed using the deterministic deterioration equations as a basis. These models provide for a method of determining the probability that a pavement will give support and desired service for a period of time or number of vehicle operations. The deterioration analysis and reliability assessment procedures are useful for maintenance and repair prediction as well as prediction of future serviceability. The combined procedure provides a framework for life-cycle management of pavements. This ability to predict deterioration and assess pavement reliability will represent the first such major addition to current procedures now in use that provide for initial design only