Predicting the progress of COVID-19 : the case for Turkey

The SIR model is applied to a dataset of 43 days from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey. Model outputs regarding the estimates of effective reproduction number and peak date of the maximum number of actively infected are presented. Favorable impact of social distancing measures are observed in comparing model outputs on progressive days. Findings are valuable for policy and decision makers in shedding light on the next phases of the pandemic