The Precarious Linkage between Trade and Security : A Trade-off Involving Textile Limits and the Reversion of Okinawa

1969 年に日米が合意した沖縄返還を巡り、大統領再選を視野に入れるニクソン政権は佐藤政権の命題であった沖縄の施政権返還に同意するのと引き替えに米国内の繊維産業保護のための対米輸出規制を迫る「糸（繊維）と縄（沖縄）」の取引を模索した。国内業者の反対から包括的な自主規制に応じない日本に対し、米側は返還協定調印や尖閣諸島返還を留保する選択肢を検討したが、いずれも繊維問題での対立が安全保障問題に波及するのを懸念したニクソンらの反対で断念された。安全保障と通商といった異なる分野を絡めて相手国に自国の内政上の問題解決を求めても、合意に向けた梃子として利用する誘因が弱く、相手国の内政のゲームにより、その結果が否定されるリスクを伴うため、非対称な分野のリンケージが成立するのは困難といえる。The Nixon administration tried to limit textile imports from Japan to protect US industry. In return, the U.S. would agree to return the administrative rights of the Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa. This stood as the most important agenda item for the Sato administration in Japan. To get such a textile concession agreement from the Japanese, U. S. officials had considered refusing to sign the Okinawa reversion treaty or returning the Senkaku Islands. However, Nixon and his advisors opposed those options since they were afraid that the confrontation over trade would spill over into defense and other security issues. Linkages among different issue areas, such as trade and security, tend to be precarious, since the leverage obtained could be unclear and various repercussions might be difficult to measure. When one country attempts to solve its domestic issues by linking them to other sensitive topics, domestic opposition might disrupt negotiation of the agreement or cause it to be rescinded