Probabilistic range prediction of ultimate strength of corroded seven-wire strands

Steel strands are widely used as important structural members of bridges. This study proposes a new method for the probabilistic range prediction of the ultimate strength of corroded seven-wire strands. For the task, first, finite element (FE) models are built for several types of corroded steel wires. Second, according to the corresponding FE analysis results, a nonparametric surrogate model is constructed using Gaussian process regression (GPR). Third, employing the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with a theoretical strand model, the probabilistic range of the ultimate strength of a corroded steel strand is provided. The proposed method is applied to several actual specimens, and the prediction results show good agreement with the test results