Examining Potential Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Other Driving Forces on the Sustainability of Spanish Olive Groves under a Socio-Ecological Approach

Olive groves form characteristic Mediterranean socio-ecological landscapes, occupying more than 5 M ha; 2.5 M ha in Spain. In recent decades, traditional extensive management of olive groves has shifted to an intensive regime, with some cases of abandonment. These situations triggered negative environmental and economic externalities that led farmers to adopt increasingly multifunctional management models. From a transdisciplinary perspective, the current state of Spanish olive groves was analyzed, assessing their vulnerability to climate change as one of the main threats to their sustainability. Based on our findings and assuming that by 2050, in the Mediterranean, there will be an increase in temperature of 0.8–2.3 °C and a decrease in rainfall of up to 200 mm per year, a displacement of the distribution area of olive groves is expected towards zones of lower temperature and higher moisture. The predicted climatic conditions would increase evapotranspiration of vegetation and atmospheric CO2 emissions. Moreover, climate change will reduce the chill accumulation in olive groves, altering its flowering, fructification and crop yields. Thus, it is necessary to adopt management models that promote olive grove resilience in face of climate change, ensuring their socio-ecological sustainability