Three essays on political determinants of corporate behaviour

Ph.D.This thesis contains three papers on political determinants of corporate behavior.In Chapter 1, Triumph of Charisma: President's Inspection and Corporate Investment, we examine economic outcomes of domestic inspections of firms by two successive Chinese presidents, namely paramount leaders, and measure their personal power by name mentions in People's Daily, the supreme official newspaper of China. We find that their inspections involving firms significantly encourage local firms' investment and such encouraging effects are enhanced by their power index, and the rise of President Xi's power in recent years has to be attributed to his extraordinary performance in national governance. However, the economic power of the regime behind them do not experience any dramatic change meanwhile, indicating such effects originate from presidents' power as their personality. Also, none of other top Chinese leaders' similar inspections, even those sharing the supreme power of this nation, have played such a role in shaping local firms' investment. According to Weber's typology on power's legitimate domination, we unbundle the power index and find the rise of president's charismatic power, which cannot be shared by other top leaders, mostly explain the encouraging effects on investment.We also find that the inspection effect mainly stems from reducing political uncertainty in the region.In Chapter 2, Kim's Shock: Geopolitical Crisis and Corporate Investment, we examine whether and how nuclear tests by North Korea, as exogenous shocks increasing geopolitical uncertainty, affects Chinese listed firms' investment by using difference-in-differences that the distance from the nuclear site is employed as their exposure to the shock. We find that firms closer to nuclear site would significantly decrease the investment in the quarter following a nuclear boom, while missile tests by North Korea do not matter. Such effects of nuclear tests are weakened for state-owned firms, especially for central state-owned firms. This study shows the role of geopolitics, determined by bilateral or multinational relations and as a source of political uncertainty for each country, in shaping corporate investment.In Chapter 3, Development as Windfall: World War I and Economic Boom in China, we study whether and how the shock by War World I leads to a boom in modern economy across China. Using a panel data covering 282 prefectures during 1901-1927 and exploiting the variations in foreign powers' penetration, we find that regions more vulnerable to foreign powers, namely having more treaty ports or spatially nearer foreign enclaves, enjoyed higher industrial growth during the shock period following the break of War World I. Meanwhile, prefecture closer to the European enclaves, instead of the Japanese ones, achieved better growth during the shock. Our study shows that foreign penetration resulted in the underdevelopment in China at that time. This finding remains robust in various checks, especially the one using historical native custom dummy as the instrument.本論文包括三篇有關企業行為的政治決定因素的論文：第一篇論文名為《超凡領袖的勝利：領導人視察與企業投資》。本論文研究的是國家領導人的個人權利，是如何作為獨立於政權的力量，而影響企業行為的。本文研究了2009-2017 年兩任中國黨和國家最高領導人的國內各地視察活動，并以《人民日報》報道的領導人的詞頻數測度其個人權力，發現最高領導人對某地企業的視察會顯著促進當地企業的投資，而且這一效果隨著領導人個人權力的增長而顯著強化。眾所周知，近年中國最高領導人習近平的權力隨著其在治國理政上的非凡業績而顯著提升。但同期中國政府的經濟力量則沒有顯著增強的跡象，表明最高領導人視察所具備的鼓勵投資的作用迎來自於領導人個人的權力及威望而非政策等決定於政府整體的因素。本文還發現，其他中國高層領導人的視察對企業均無類似的作用。本文根據馬克斯·韋伯的政治合法性分類理論，將領導人詞頻分解為基於法理型權威的權力和基於超凡魅力的權力，發現基於超凡魅力的權力係數的增長更充分而顯著地解釋了最高領導人視察對企業的影響，而這是中國最高領導人不能與其他領導人分享的那部分權力。本文研究還發現，上述領導人視察的經濟效果，主要是通過降低視察地政治風險的渠道而產生的。第二篇論文名為《金氏衝擊：地緣政治危機與企業投資》。本論文研究了朝鮮六次核試驗作為誘發地緣政治危機的重大事件，對中國企業投資行為的影響。本文使用雙重差分法，發現在核試驗發生之後，地理上越靠近朝鮮核試驗場的中國企業越會更多地減少其投資，但是朝鮮的導彈武器試驗並不會對中國企業產生類似的影響。核試驗的上述影響，對於私有企業作用最強，而對國有企業，尤其是中央屬國有企業則較弱。本文創新地研究了決定於多邊關係并增加環境不確定性的地緣政治因素如何影響了企業行為。第三篇論文名為《意外得來的發展：第一次世界大戰與中國的經濟繁榮》，研究了第一次世界大戰如何促成了中國現代新式經濟的短暫繁榮。本文利用了1901-1927 年中國280 多個府級行政區的數據，以第一世界大戰作為影響外國在華勢力的外生衝擊事件，以行政區內通商口岸數目和離最近外國租界或租借地的距離為測度外國勢力強度，發現在衝擊期間，以往受外國勢力影響較大的地區的新式經濟上取得了更顯著的發展。而且比較來看，距離日本租界和租借地較近的地區，衝擊期間其新式經濟沒有取得顯著增長，因為日本不同於歐洲列強，在華勢力沒有受到一戰的負面影響。而且，在使用清代常關作為通商口岸數目的工具變量后，本文的結論依然穩健。Xue, Chang.Thesis Ph.D. Chinese University of Hong Kong 2019.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 158-162).Abstracts also in Chinese.Title from PDF title page (viewed on 09, December, 2020)