Analysis of Characteristics of Forest Fire in Taiwan

本研究的目的在於探討台灣地區森林火災之特性，採用林務局在2006至2015年記載之臺灣地區林地火災資料進行分析，主要探討的項目包括火災頻度、面積及氣象在時間序列及空間分布。所得之結果顯示，經篩選註記火災原因的資料進行分析，顯示人為因素為主要引起森林火災之因素，其中發生火災林型多為闊葉林與竹林；本研究採用卡方檢定分析火災發生次數與季節的關係，發現火災發生次數與季節有明顯關聯，以春季發生次數最多，經變方分析結果顯示冬季火燒面積較秋季與夏季多。就分布地區而言，經核密度估計結果呈現南投、嘉義、臺南、高雄林火發生密度較高，為林火高風險區，而環域分析結果顯示，火災多集中於近道路300 m之區域，其中近100 m之範圍內頻度發生最高；在火災垂直空間分布範圍，森林火災多集中於海拔500 m以下之區域；另外，透過氣象脆弱度指標可知火燒潛勢以春季較高，故應加強春季森林火災管理措施。由邏輯斯迴歸結果可知當降水日數越少，相對濕度越小且溫度較高之環境下，易增加林火發生機率。而上述林火特性分析可作為未來政策擬定之參考。The purpose of this study was to analyze forest fire characteristics in Taiwan from 2006-2015. The data were obtained from the Taiwan Forestry Bureau. I analyzed fire frequency, fire area and weather in temporal and spatial distribution. The results showed that forest fire was high related to human activity and most forest fire occurred in broad-leaved and bamboo forest types. Moreover, I used the chi-square test fire to examine the relationship between season and fire frequency and found the significant difference among seasons, indicating that most fire occurred in spring. The analysis of variance was used to examine fire area and results showed that forest fire area was larger in winter than that in autumn and summer. According to the kernel density to estimat the distribution of forest fire, the density of forest fire was higher in Nantong, Chiayi Tainan and Kaohsiung. The buffer analysis was used t to examine the forest fire and distance of road and found forest fire occurred more frequently within 300 m of the roads, especially within 100 m of that. In the vertical distribution, forest fire usually occurred in less than 500 m above sea level. The vulnerability index was used to determine the high risk of fires and showed that this index was higher in spring, indicating that which should be pay attention to the forest fire. The logistic regression predicted the probability of forest fire and showed that it raises the probability of forest fire with less precipitation days, lower relative humidity and higher maximum temperature. The results of this study help understand the characteristics of forest fire and will provide concrete information for fire policy.摘要 i Abstract ii 目錄 iii 表目錄 iv 圖目錄 v 第一章 前言 1 第二章 文獻回顧 3 第一節 林火定義 3 第二節 臺灣林火特性 7 第三節 林火與氣象因子 14 第四節 林火危險度預測 18 第三章 研究方法 26 第一節 研究區域與材料 26 第二節 研究流程與方法 30 第四章 結果與討論 39 第一節 臺灣林火紀錄分析 39 第二節 林火發生之時間特性 44 第三節 林火發生之空間特性 53 第四節 林火發生之氣象特性 59 第五章 結論與建議 64 參考文獻 6