Analysis of Trading Duration in Food Supply Chain between the APEC Countries

本研究透過Kaplan-Meier存續率歸納APEC會員國與食物供應鏈中製程別在1980-2013年間，進、出口端貿易存續變化與差異。亦經由TVC Cox及panel logit模型探究影響進口端貿易穩定性決定因素，並針對使用panel logit固定效果模型之製程別，分別進行國別與消費、規模及產出三個解釋變數之交乘項影響貿易穩定性程度比較。結果顯示，不論進、出口端皆以中間財貿易存續率最高且穩定，最終財次之，而原料最低、不穩定。另外，兩模型實證結果顯示「消費」增加在全樣本、中間財及最終財皆有利於貿易穩定性。而採用panel logit固定效果模型的製程別中，「消費與國別之交乘項」顯示消費增加，加拿大有利貿易穩定性的程度最大，日本不利的狀況特別明顯。We attempt to generalize the differences of survival rate and duration of import trade and export trade in the food supply chain between the countries of APEC from 1980 to 2013 through Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. In addition, this study is conducted with TVC Cox model and panel logit model to clarify which independent variables would influence import trade stability. We also include interaction variable of countries and independent variables among the panel logit fixed effect model in order to compare the trade stability in different counties. Our results reveal that whether import trade or export trade, processed goods is the most stable category which has the higher survival rate than final goods and primary goods in food supply chain. According to the findings of TVC Cox model and panel logit model demonstrate consumption growth is generally positively related to trade stability on the whole samples, processed goods and final goods. Major findings of panel logit fixed effect model including the interaction variable of countries and consumption contain the following: Canada has the most stable trade with consumption growth. However, the trade stability of Japan is negatively associated with consumption growth.摘要 i 表目錄 iv 圖目錄 v 第壹章 緒論 6 第一節 研究背景與動機 6 第二節 研究目的 8 第貳章 文獻回顧 8 第三節 應用存活分析於國際貿易之相關文獻 9 第四節 國際貿易製程別分工相關文獻 10 第五節 食物供應鏈相關文獻 11 第參章 研究方法 13 第一節 資料來源與處理 13 第二節 Kaplan-Meier存活曲線估計式 13 第三節 對數等級檢定 (log-rank test) 14 第四節 時間相依共變數之Cox非比例風險模型 (TVC Cox model) 14 第五節 解釋變數說明 15 第六節 追蹤羅吉特模型 (panel logit model) 18 第肆章 實證結果分析 22 第一節 存活曲線K-M實證結果比較 22 第二節 影響貿易穩定性之決定因素 – TVC Cox與panel logit實證結果 30 第伍章 結論與建議 35 參考文獻 38 附錄 4