Analysis of Trade Patterns and Duration: Evidence from Food Industries between the OECD Countries

OECD國家是食品之主要進口與消費國家。食品是高度動態貿易的商品，但OECD國家之間食品的貿易型態卻很少有深入探究。過去貿易與存活期間的研究大都主張差異化產品具有較長的存續時間。本文針對OECD國家間食品貿易型態關係進行存活估計，探討不同食品之間存續狀況是否存在差異。並且利用存活率模型（Cox比例風險模型）從產業別驗證消費面對貿易型態存活率的影響。本文研究發現，消費面顯著驅動水平食品產業內貿易對貿易存續穩定的重要經濟含意。近年來各地區積極在進行著區域經濟整合，勢必會促進區域內食品價值供應鏈的整合。因此，在食品政策含意上，本文認為應促進食品產業水平產業內貿易之深化，才不會因傳統比較利益的貿易而造成劇烈就業調整而導致食品產業在全球供應價值鏈中發生存續的不穩定性。By using survival analysis, this study explores the duration of intra-industry trade patterns in the food industries of OECD countries. The food industry is highly dynamic and OECD countries are major importers and consumers of food. However, exploration into the dynamic trade patterns in the food industries of OECD countries is scarce. Most previous studies of trade and survival duration suggest that differentiated products have relatively long survival duration. This study conducts a survival rates on food trade patterns among OECD countries and explores whether different survival conditions exist in different food industries. By applying the survival determinants (Cox proportional hazards model), this study examines the effects and economic significance of consumption on the survival rate of various trade patterns at the industry level. This study finds an important policy implication that the stability of horizontal intra industry trade on the survival duration is driven by consumption in food industry of OECD countries. Recently, there has been significant regional economic integration worldwide, as reflected in the integration of the regional food supply chain. Therefore, this study suggests that policies that support horizontal intra-industry trade within the food industry should be pursued to avoid instability in the duration of trade and in the global supply chain, as caused by the severe employment adjustments associated with traditional comparative advantage.中文摘要 i Abstract ii Table of Contents iii List of Figure and Table iv Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Background and Motivation 1 1.2. Objectives 4 1.3. Research Method and Thesis Framework 5 Chapter 2. Literature Review 7 2.1. Theoretical Framework of Trade Patterns 7 2.2. Empirical Reference in Intra-industry Trade of Agrofood Products 9 2.3. Empirical Study of International Trade with Survival Analysis 10 Chapter 3. Methodology 13 3.1 Data 13 3.2 Horizontal Intra-industry Trade Classification 14 3.3 Analysis of Survival Curves 16 3.3.1. Types of censoring 16 3.3.2. Kaplan-Meier Estimator 17 3.3.3. Log Rank Test 18 3.3.4. Comparison of the Survival Curves with the Empirical Results 18 3.4 Cox Regression Model 23 3.5 Explanatory Variables 25 Chapter 4. Empirical Results and Analysis 27 4.1. Empirical Results of the HIIT Cox Regression Model 28 4.2. Empirical Results of the Cox Regression by Industrial-Level 30 Chapter 5. Conclusions and Policy Suggestions 33 Reference 3