Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020: Main conditioning factors of fiscal and monetary policies in the post-COVID-19 era

This edition, No. 72 of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, analyses the effects and challenges of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic for the region during 2020 and the outlook that is taking shape for the years to come. This study is divided into three parts. Part I outlines the region’s economic performance in 2019, then analyses the first six months of 2020 and the outlook for the remainder of the year. The external and internal impacts of the responses to the pandemic are examined, as are their effects on the region’s economic performance, focusing on growth patterns, the global economy, fiscal and monetary matters, labour markets and prices. An analysis is also provided of macroeconomic policies and the challenges they must address in the context of a sharp contraction, a slow recovery and heightened economic uncertainty given the unpredictable nature of the pandemic. Part II of the document describes the greater financial vulnerability that will exist in the world and the region once the COVID-19 pandemic has abated, and will act as the backdrop for the subsequent economic recovery. The report analyses the main constraints on fiscal and monetary policies in Latin America and the Caribbean in this new context. Part III of the Economic Survey may be accessed on the website of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (www.cepal.org/en). It contains the notes on the economic performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2019 and the first half of 2020, together with their respective statistical annexes. The cut-off date for updating the statistical information in this publication was 24 July 2020.Introduction .-- Executive summary .-- Chapter I. Regional overview. A. The international context. B. The external sector. C. Domestic performance. D. Macroeconomic policies. E. Outlook for the current year and projections .-- Chapter II. Main conditioning factors of fiscal and monetary policies in the post-COVID-19 era. A. Uncertain recovery of the global economy in the midst of accumulating debt and financial fragility. B. Fiscal policy challenges in a post-pandemic world. C. Latin America and the Caribbean confronting COVID-19: conditioning factors on monetary and exchange rate policies, and on capital and macroprudential regulation in the post-pandemic period .-- Statistical annex