Probabilistic mapping of earthquake-induced submarine landslide susceptibility in the South-West Iberian margin

16 pages, 16 figures, 6 tablesThe SW Iberian continental margin is well recognized as a tectonically active area, where major canyons and mass wasting events are both present. Earthquake triggered submarine landslides may cause tsunami and result in catastrophic damage to bordering coastal areas. In this setting, submarine landslide susceptibility mapping represents a major step towards a regional risk mitigation strategy. Landslide susceptibility mapping in large offshore areas presents significant challenges as a result of the limited information on controlling variables, large uncertainties in triggering mechanisms and limited geotechnical data. In this study, a geotechnical model-based approach has been followed that narrows the range of controlling factors and, within a probabilistic framework, allows a systematic treatment of parameter uncertainties. This model-based analysis covers the whole SW Iberian margin increasing by three orders of magnitude the areal extent of precedent offshore slope stability susceptibility studies. This jump in spatial scale is facilitated by application of a systematic Bayesian updating procedure, to combine geotechnical information from global databases and that available from regional sites. Seismic shaking is estimated using an available regional database of seismogenic faults. These tools are implemented within a GIS to generate, via Montecarlo simulations, probabilistic landslide susceptibility maps based on two different analytical seismic infinite slope stability models. These models differ mainly in the form of their final results, either as distributions of slope stability safety factors or as distributions of seismic-triggered slope displacements. Receiving Operator Curves are used to assess the different landslide susceptibility predictions obtained against a comprehensive regional database of submarine landslides. It turns out that the models analyzed correctly predict 92% and 82% of the mapped landslide subset chosen for validation for pseudo-static and displacement-based method respectively. This suggests that, within the limits of the currently available databases, seismic events are the dominant factor at the origin of the submarine landslides mapped in the study area. An advantage of the framework presented is that it can quickly incorporate new regional geotechnical information or better regional landslide databases, as they become availableThis research received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovating programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 721403. The Spanish “Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación” and the European Regional Development Fund through grant CTM2015-70155-R (project INSIGHT) are also acknowledgedWith the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)Peer reviewe