A Risk Function for the Stochastic Modeling of Electric Capacity Expansion

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.1041We present a stochastic optimization model for planning capacity expansion under capacity deterioration and demand uncertainty. The paper focuses on the electric sector, although the methodology can be used in other applications. The goals of the model are deciding which energy types must be installed, and when. Another goal is providing an initial generation plan for short periods of the planning horizon that might be adequately modified in real time assuming penalties in the operation cost. Uncertainty is modeled under the assumption that the demand is a random vector. The cost of the risk associated with decisions that may need some tuning in the future is included in the objective function. The proposed scheme to solve the nonlinear stochastic optimization model is Generalized Benders’ decomposition. We also exploit the Benders’ sub- problem structure to solve it efficiently. Computational results for moderate-size problems are presented along with comparison to a general-purpose nonlinear optimization package.Naval Postgraduate Schoo