RUSSIA AND EUROPE’S ENERGY DEPENDENCE: STRATEGIC RISK FACTORS THAT AFFECT EUROPEAN COHESION AND THE TRANS-ATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP

Conventional thinking would suggest that Russia is positioning its vast energy resources to economically influence and undermine European cohesion and its trans-Atlantic relationship. However, Russia remains heavily dependent on the sale and export of its energy resources to Europe, and its future economic viability is tied directly to Europe’s continued use of fossil fuels as opposed to its desired transition to green energy. This thesis is exploratory research utilizing system dynamics modeling to identify various risk factors that affect Russia and Europe's energy relationship and assess their potential impacts on collective security strategies. This thesis has two purposes: (1) model the dynamic energy relationships between Russia and Europe, utilizing Germany and Estonia as specifics case studies, and (2) model policy scenarios to assess their impact on Russia, Europe, and trans-Atlantic relationships. The exploratory research in this thesis will aid U.S. and NATO national security decision-makers by providing them with a combination of qualitative and quantitative insights and analysis to enhance their understanding of risk factors that affect Russia and Europe's energy relations.http://archive.org/details/russiaandeuropes1094564003Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited