When Is Model Complexity Too Much? Illustrating the Benefits of Simple Models With Hughes’ Salvo Equations

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.10062The simulations that many defense analysts rely upon in their studies continue to grow in size and complexity. This paper contrasts the guidance that the authors have received— from some of the giants of military operations research—with the current practice. In particular, the analytic utility of Hughes’ simple salvo equations is compared with that of the complex Joint Warfighting System (JWARS), with respect to JWARS’ key performance parameters. The comparison suggests that a family of analytic tools supports the best analyses. It follows that smaller, more agile, and transparent models, such as Hughes’ salvo equations, are underutilized in defense analyses. We believe that these models should receive more attention, use, and funding. To illustrate this point, this paper uses two very simple models (by modern standards) to rapidly generate insights on the value of information relative to force strength