A Framework for a Defense Systems Effectiveness Modeling and Analysis Capability: Systems Effectiveness Modeling for Acquisition

The purpose of this paper is to present a response to two current Department of Defense (DoD) initiatives. The first is the DoD National Defense Strategy of 2018, which encourages the adoption of new practices to improve system performance and affordability to meet current and future threats. The second initiative is the DoD Digital Engineering Strategy, which outlines five strategic goals in support of the first initiative. The first strategic goal—“Formalize the development, integration, and use of models to inform enterprise and program decision making”—is the specific subject of this paper. The response is a conceptual methodology that addresses an analytic deficiency identified by a 2017 congressional commission that examined the capabilities of the DoD civilian staff in their determination of force and weapons systems requirements. Specifically, this paper presents a framework for a “Defense Systems Effectiveness Modeling and Analysis Capability” whose metric is the probability of mission success. The objective is the application of modeling and analysis to guide decisions leading to fielding systems having optimum effectiveness constrained by affordability and reduced development time. While the current U.S. focus is on systems readiness, it is an integral element of the more robust systems effectiveness.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra