First Term Attrition Among Non-Prior Service Enlisted Personnel: Loss Probabilities Based on Selected Entry Factors

This report describes the results of analyses investigating the relationships between demographic information available for recruits at enlistment and attrition during the first three years of military service. The population studied consists of over two million male and female non-prior service accessions who enlisted during Fiscal Years 1973 through 1978. Attrition rates were determined for this population in respect to the following factors: Service; sex; race; educational level; age; marital status;(AFQ and home of record at enlistment. Interactions were also determined between many of these factors and attrition. Each of the demographic factors was found to be related to Service attrition. Prediction of attrition was increased, however, when interactions between these factors and attrition were taken into account. It should now be possible to develop Service-specific composite scores to predict attrition that are more effective than the combinations of educational level and AFQT scores currently employed in enlistment screening.Navy Personnel Research and Development CenterApproved for public release, distribution unlimite