Gauging the potential for armed conflict between China and Indonesia in the South China Sea

Under what conditions will the People's Republic of China and Indonesia be more likely to enter into an armed conflict over disputes in the South China Sea? The purpose of this thesis is to determine the conditions under which both countries might enter into an armed conflict. As no recent armed conflict has involved both countries, this thesis limits its analysis to the historical background and current foreign policy trends of the People's Republic of China and Indonesia. Historical cases of China and Indonesia are analyzed to determine how both countries behaved when dealing with situations similar to the maritime dispute in the South China Sea. The results of the historical analysis are then examined within the context of each state's foreign policy toward the other on the South China Sea issue. The thesis uses the refined analysis to predict the possibility of armed conflict between the two countries in the near future. Further, it examines policy implications and makes foreign policy recommendations for the government of Indonesia.http://archive.org/details/gaugingpotential1094556885Lieutenant Colonel, Indonesian ArmyLieutenant, Indonesian NavyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited