Assessing orchestrated simulation through modeling to quantify the benefits of unmanned-manned teaming in a tactical ASW scenario

The U.S. Navy’s strategy calls for maintaining dominance in the undersea domain. One way to add undersea warfare capability is to team the P-8 Poseidon with the Medium Displacement Unmanned Surface Vessel (MDUSV). A tool to study the potential benefit of integrating the two platforms is Orchestration Simulation Through Modeling (OSM), which allows the modeler to use a map of the world to define a combat zone, build agents with pre-defined behaviors and states, and run hundreds of thousands of simulated missions built with the Littoral Combat Ship Integrated Toolkit for Mission Engineering Using Simulations (LITMUS). To assess LITMUS’s ability to quantify the benefit of integrating these two platforms, 95,700 tactical antisubmarine warfare (ASW) engagements are simulated using the program with the P-8 alone, MDUSV alone, and the P-8 and MDUSV working in tandem. LITMUS statistical data analysis, while limited by software constraints, indicates a 30% improvement in the probability of a kill by a P-8 hunting a submarine versus the MDUSV alone, and a 10% decrease in conditional mean time to kill the submarine given the submarine is killed when the P-8 and MDUSV work in tandem versus the P-8 operating alone. Adding a dark submarine to act as a false contact to each of the three scenarios had a negligible effect on both the conditional mean time to kill and the probability the submarine is killed. Comparison of LITMUS’s results to those obtained using a different simulation model indicates the LITMUS results are optimistic and LITMUS software modifications are required to improve LIMTUS’s representation of the scenario.http://archive.org/details/assessingorchest1094558270Lieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited