Development of multimorbidity over time: an analysis of Belgium primary care data using Markov chains and Weighted Association Rules Mining

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of multimorbidity is increasing in recent years and patients with multimorbidity often have a decrease in quality of life and require more health care. The aim of this study was to explore the evolution of multimorbidity taking the sequence of diseases into consideration. METHODS: We used a Belgian database collected by extracting coded parameters and over 100 chronic conditions from the Electronic Health Records of general practitioners to study patients older than 40 years with multiple diagnoses between 1991 and 2015 (N= 65,939). We applied Markov chains to estimate the probability of developing another condition in the next state after one diagnosis. The results of Weighted Association Rules Mining (WARM) allow us to show strong associations among multiple conditions. RESULTS: About 66.9% of the selected patients had multimorbidity. Conditions with high prevalence, such as hypertension and depressive disorder, were likely to occur after diagnosis of most conditions. Patterns in several disease groups were apparent based on the results of both Markov chain and WARM, such as musculoskeletal diseases and psychological diseases. Psychological diseases were frequently followed by irritable bowel syndrome. CONCLUSION: Our study used Markov chains and WARM for the first time to provide a comprehensive view of the relations among 103 chronic conditions, taking sequential chronology into consideration. Some strong associations among specific conditions were detected and the results were consistent with current knowledge in literature, meaning the approaches were valid to be used on larger datasets, such as National Healthcare Systems or private insurers.status: publishe