Effects of climate and spawning stock structure on the spatial distribution of Northeast Arctic cod larvae

Abstract The spatial distribution of fish early life stages can impact recruitment at later stages and affect population size and resilience. Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod spawning occurs along the Norwegian coast. Eggs, larvae, and pelagic juveniles drift near-surface towards the Barents Sea nursery area. In this study, a 35-year long time series of NEA cod larvae data was analysed in combination with factors that potentially may affect the distribution of eggs and larvae. These factors included biological aspects of the spawning stock, and environmental variables, such as water temperature, wind, ocean current, and prey abundance. Our aim was to shed light on how these factors influence larval abundance and distribution and how larval abundance and distribution influenced recruitment at age 3. We found that biomass and mean weight of the spawners were positively associated with larval abundance and that a high liver condition index of the spawners was associated with a north-easterly distribution of the larvae. The environmental variables showed generally weak or no correlations with abundance or distribution of larvae. Lastly, we found significant association between larval abundance and year-class abundance at age 3, while the spatial distribution metrics of the larvae, i.e. distribution extent, mean longitude, and mean latitude, showed no significant association with future year-class abundance