Assessing Cut-off Points of Eosinophils, Nasal Polyp, and Lund-Mackay Scores to Predict Surgery in Nasal Polyposis : A Real-World Study

Background: Developing tools to identify chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) patients requiring surgical treatment would help clinicians treat patients more effectively. The aim of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to identify cut-off values for eosinophil percentage, nasal polyps (NP), and Lund-Mackay (LM) scores that may predict the need for surgical treatment in Finnish CRSwNP patients. Methods: Data of CRSwNP patients (N = 378) undergoing consultation for ESS in 2001-19 were used. Data was collected from patient records and Lund-Mackay scores were determined from sinus computed tomography scans. The percentage of eosinophils was microscopically evaluated from the polyp samples available (n = 81). Associations were analyzed by Mann Whitney U test, and cut-off values by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: ESS was performed to 293 (77.5%) of patients. Polyp eosinophilia was associated significantly with ESS (p = 0.001), whereas peripheral blood eosinophil count, LM- score and endoscopic NP- score were not (p > 0.05). AUROC values (95% CI) for detecting those needing ESS were for polyp eosinophilia 0.71 (0.60-0.83), p = 0.001, for LM score 0.59 (0.50-0.67), p = 0.054; for NP score 0.56 (0.48-0.64), p = 0.17, and for blood eosinophil count 0.68 (0.46-0.90), p = 0.08. With the threshold value of polyp eosinophilia (>25%), the sensitivity and specificity were optimal for detecting the group needing ESS from the group not undergoing ESS. The cut-off value of blood eosinophil count (>0.26 x 10(9)/L) had relatively good, yet statistically insignificant (underpowered), predictive potential. Moderate cut-off values were found for endoscopic LM score (>= 14/24) and NP score (>= 4/8). Conclusions: Polyp eosinophilia (>25%) predicted ESS among Finnish hospital-level CRSwNP patients. A future challenge would be to find less invasive and cost-effective clinical factors predicting uncontrolled CRSwNP.Peer reviewe