The Robust Bus Evacuation Problem

By natural or man-made disasters, the evacuation of a whole region or city may become necessary. Apart from private traffic, the evacuation from collection points to secure shelters outside the endangered region will be realized by a bus fleet made available by emergency relief. The arising Bus Evacuation Problem (BEP) is a vehicle scheduling problem, in which a given number of evacuees needs to be transported from a set of collection points to a set of capacitated shelters, minimizing the total evacuation time, i.e., the time needed until the last person is brought to safety. In this paper we consider an extended version of the BEP, the Robust Bus Evacuation Problem (RBEP), in which the exact numbers of evacuees are not known, but may stem from a set of probable scenarios. However, after a given reckoning time, this uncertainty is eliminated and planners are given exact figures. The problem is to decide for each bus, if it is better to send it right away -- using uncertain numbers of evacuees -- or to wait until the numbers become known. We present a mixed-integer linear programming formulation for the RBEP and discuss solution approaches; in particular, we present a tabu search framework for finding heuristic solutions of acceptable quality within short computation time. In computational experiments using both randomly generated instances and the real-world scenario of evacuating the city of Kaiserslautern, we compare our solution approaches