It was twenty years ago today: revisiting time-of-day choice in The Netherlands

Time-of-day (TOD) choice can be considered as a fifth stage in the modelling of transport behaviour, additional to the conventional four stages. Twenty years ago in The Netherlands, a stated preference (SP) study was designed for investigating the choice of time-of-day (departure time) and transport mode. A nested logit time period and mode choice model, largely based on this SP data set, was included as one of the components of The Netherlands national transport model (LMS). A new TOD SP survey has now been developed to obtain up-to-date information for the next re-estimation round of the LMS. The fieldwork was carried out in in 2019, followed by the re-estimation of the nested logit model of period and mode choice on the new SP data. The context for the SP is that of a tour (round trip) carried out by the respondent as car driver or by train, also distinguishing by travel purpose (commuting, business, education and other). This means that we are asking questions both about the outward leg of the tour and the inward leg. Both car drivers and train users are asked to participate in two SP experiments on TOD and mode choice: the first focussing on the trade-off between congestion or crowding and the departure/arrival times; the second also with differentiation in costs between peak and off-peak. Our tentative conclusion is that TOD choice seems to have become (relatively to mode choice) more flexible in the past two decades, in line with the trends towards more flexibility in scheduling activities over the day and a 24 hours economy. Moreover, we now estimate nest coefficients for both car drivers and train users (until now the assumption that had to be made in the LMS was that the nest coefficients for train followed those for car)