The Interaction of Structure and Agency: A Quantitative Exploration of Early Retirement Decisions in England

"The changing age structure of the population is an issue which crosses the UK boundaries. The growing dependency ratio poses challenges to governments, which - in order to act and plan for the future - require a better understanding of the motives behind retirement decisions. The purpose of this study was to explore the reasons why people take up early retirement and what the best predictors are. Interest in this topic was fuelled by policy concerns to reduce public expenditure on pensions and social welfare. Wave 7 of The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing was used. The analysis was broken down into two sections. Section one used binomial logistic model to inspect which demographic characteristics and regions predict early retirement. Section two used a discriminant analysis model, to see what the best predictors of group membership are, for the push-pull model of retirement. The binomial logistic model found gender, age education completed, socio-economic group and region to be significant predictors. Discriminant analysis model found ‘ill health’ to be the strongest predictor for the push category and ‘to enjoy life’ for the pull category. The combination of factors provides some evidence that the ageing population may be prematurely pushed out of the labour market