Exploring the capacity to grasp multi-annual seasonal variability of winter wheat in continental climates with MODIS

This paper presents some exploratory results of the FP-7 MOCCCASIN project that aims to MOnitor Crops in Continental Climates through ASsimilation of Satellite Information. MOCCCASIN is a collaborative project which focuses on improving the monitoring of winter-wheat and forecasting of winter-wheat yield in Russia by combining modelling techniques with satellite data assimilation [1]. In continental climate, winter wheat is particularly affected by low temperatures during the winter which determine whether rapid regrowth is possible in spring. A pre-requisite to use satellite earth observation to characterize the effect of winter kill on wheat is to determine if the multi-annual seasonal variability over the entire growing season can be grasped by remote sensing indicators. The results over an exploratory study site in Tula region for 5 years (2005- 2009) demonstrate that it was possible to retrieve crop status indicators using an approach combining radiative transfer modeling and neural networks which could inform on where winter kill has stricken