Scenarios of land cover change and landslide susceptibility: an example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

Since 1990 the Subcarpathians in Buzau County, Romania have witnessed substantial socio-economic changes and resulting changes in the land cover. Influenced by the interplay of poor economic conditions, land ownership reforms, and institutional difficulties, these changes have been difficult to manage, resulting in a dispersal of built-up areas. Even though, the spatial extent of land cover changes has not reached critical levels as similar areas in the Carpathians, our analysis suggests that in the future the area might experience more extreme land cover changes. Moreover, the litho-structural traits and the high relief energy of the Romanian Subcarpathians favored the occurrence of various types of mass movements, imposing different levels of risk to people, buildings and infrastructure. Increase of human influence in form of expansion of built-up areas in the area could therefore result in slope instability and changes in the temporal and spatial patterns of hydrometeorological hazards. This study shows, that possible future changes in land cover will not have a major influence on hazards, however risk might increase due to the increased value and number of elements at risk