Emissions of air pollutants for the World Energy Outlook 2012 energy scenarios

This report examines global emissions of major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM2.5) resulting from energy scenarios developed for the World Energy Outlook 2012 (OECD/IEA, 2012). Estimates include emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation used in the IEA World Energy Model (WEM). Emissions have been estimated using the IIASA GAINS model. The 2012 Outlook discusses four energy pathways for the next 25 years. The central scenario, the New Policies (NP) scenario, takes into account recently announced policy commitments and assumes that they are implemented in a cautious manner. The Current Policies (CP) scenario assumes no new policies beyond those adopted by mid-2012. The High Energy Efficiency (HE) scenario simulates the effects of policies aimed at promoting energy efficiency in all countries in the world. The 450 scenario assumes radical policy action consistent with limiting the global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius (2 oC). All the four pathways were implemented into the GAINS model. Next, emissions of air pollutants were calculated. Calculations take into account the current air pollution control legislation and policies in each country or region as adopted or in the pipeline by mid-2012. Presented in this report estimates do not include emissions from international shipping as well as cruising emissions from aviation. They also do not include emissions from biomass burning (deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires). In 2010, world emissions of SO2 from sources covered in this report were about 86 million tons. OECD countries contributed 21 percent of this total. Implementation of pollution controls for the Current Policies Scenario causes an eight percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 in 2020 compared with 2010. This is a combined result of reducing emissions from OECD countries (by about 24 percent), increase in India, and a decrease in China, Russia, South Africa, and Middle East. After 2020, emissions from many non-OECD countries continue rising, which causes an increase of world emissions by about five million tons until 2035. Particularly remarkable is the increase in SO2 emissions in India. The corresponding numbers for NOx are: 85 million tons in 2010 (of which 35 percent originated from the OECD countries), five percent decrease until 2020 and next increase until 2035 by 12 million tons. Emissions of PM2.5 (43 million tons in 2010) are dominated by sources from non-OECD countries -- 90 percent of total. Changes in the emissions until 2035 are rather small, with a seven percent decrease in the OECD countries and a stabilization in the developing world. The 450 Scenario causes an important reduction in emissions of air pollutants. In 2035, the emissions of SO2 are 36 percent lower than in the Current Policies case. Emissions of NOx decrease by 32 percent and those of PM2.5 by 11 percent. Emissions for the New Policies and the High Energy Efficiency scenarios lie between those for the Current Policies and the 450 scenarios. Costs of controlling emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides and PM (dust) in 2010 are estimated at about 217 billion Euros/a. Until 2035, these costs increase in the Current Policies Scenario by more than a factor of two, which is due to higher activity levels and increasing stringency of controls. In 2035, 61 percent of the total costs are the expenditures on reducing emissions from road transport. The 450 Scenario brings 32 percent cost savings in 2035 compared to the Current Policies case. This study also estimates health impacts of air pollution in Europe, China and India in terms of life years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5. PM concentrations as in 2010 cause a loss of about 2.2 billion life-years. This estimate is dominated by impacts in China and India. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator in 2035 by 46 percent to 3.3 billion. Decrease of PM2.5 concentrations as in the 450 Scenario in 2035 saves about 870 million life-years. Lower impact indicators and lower control costs in the scenarios that simulate effects of policies towards reducing energy demand and the use of fossil fuels clearly demonstrate important co-benefits of such policies for air pollution