Sustainable agriculture in China: Estimation and reduction of nitrogen impacts

In this chapter we present an integrated model for long term and geographically explicit planning of agricultural activities to meet demands under resource constraints and ambient targets. Environmental, resource and production feasibility indicators permit estimating impacts of agricultural practices on environment to guide agricultural policies regarding production allocation, intensification, and fertilizer application while accounting for local constraints. Physical production potentials of land are incorporated in the model, together with demographic and socio-economic variables and behavioral drivers to reflect spatial distribution of demands and production intensification levels. The application of the model is demonstrated with a case study of nitrogen accounting at the level of China counties. We discuss current intensification trends and estimate the ranges of agricultural impacts on China's environment under plausible pollution mitigation scenarios with a particular focus on nitrogen sources and losses