Population Projections for Forty-Four European Countries: The Ongoing Population Ageing

In the current paper we present the population projections for forty-four European countries. The dynamics of migration might prevent some European countries from experiencing population decline in the near future, although fertility has been below replacement for some time. Similarly, the EU-27 population is projected to further increase. Our results confirm that population ageing is underway all around Europe, albeit with clear differences across countries. According to the traditional measures of population age structure, the countries with the oldest populations are expected to be found within the EU. However, these measures do not take into account the longevity change: a man of 65 living in a country with a higher life expectancy might be at a different stage of the life cycle in comparison to a man of 65 living in a country with lower life expectancy. Relying on three alternative measures of age which consider explicitly changes in the remaining life expectancy, we find evidence that ageing will continue, but (1) it might be more severe in some countries where population is shrinking towards older ages but life expectancy is still rather low; (2) it might not be as fast as it appears when not adjusting for the longevity change. As an example, the former Soviet Union states and some countries of the Balkan region show the highest proportion of population with a remaining life expectancy of 15 years or less; in Italy and Germany the prospective median age and the proportion of population with a remaining life expectancy of 15 years or less might increase at a slower pace than the corresponding conventional measures, i.e. the population median age and the proportion of people aged 65+