The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: HFC, PFC AND SF6

Many of the traditional air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, offering a cost-effective potential for simultaneous improvements of traditional air pollution problems and climate change. A methodology has been developed to extend the RAINS integrated assessment model to explore synergies and trade-offs between the control of greenhouse gases and air pollution. With this extension, the GAINS (GHG-Air pollution INteraction and Synergies) model will allow the assessment of emission control costs for the six greenhouse gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O and the three F-gases) together with the emissions of air pollutants SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3 and PM. This report describes the first implementation (Version 1.0) of the model extension model to incorporate emissions of the Fgases, i.e., HFC, PFC and SF6. GAINS Version 1.0 assesses 230 options for reducing F-gas emissions from the various source categories. It quantifies for 43 countries/regions in Europe country-specific application potentials of the various options in the different sectors of the economy, and estimates the societal resource costs of these measures. Mitigation potentials are estimated in relation to an exogenous baseline projection that reflects current planning. The initial implementation of GAINS 1.0 estimates for 1995 total F-gas emissions in the European model domain (39 countries including the European part of Russia) at around 87 Mt CO2eq. With current legislation emissions are expected to increase by a factor two in 2020, due to the expected increase in HFC emissions from mobile air conditioning and refrigerating. 34 mitigation options for F-gases have been identified and implemented in GAINS 1.0. Full implementation of these options could reduce in 2020 total European F-gas emissions by more than 70 percent (compared to the current legislation baseline projection), which would keep these emissions below their 1995 levels. Marginal costs of these options range from 0.1 to 64 Euro/tCO2eq. More than half of these options have costs below 20 Euro/tCO2eq. More than half of these options have costs below 20 Euro/tCO2eq. Uncertainties in the estimates of emissions (and hence control costs) are large due to uncertainties in emission factors, the future penetration of technologies and abatement measures as well as lack of data on activities in a number of countries